The Drug War is Lost: a (1992) interview with Milton Friedman

I stumbled on this quite by accident on the newsgroups.  Someone, posting as Annie, has been kind enough to translate an interview with Nobel Laureate (economics) Milton Friedman.  The interview was apparently first published in 1992, but I think it is still quite worth reading and referencing.  So I will reproduce the post in it in its entirety here.

Several people have requested that I post a translation of the Spiegel
interview in full:

“The drug war is lost”
Interview with the American Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman on
the legalization of the illicit drug market

Der Spiegel, 14/1992

Spiegel:  The United States puts out 12 billion dollars a year on its
all-out war on drugs, but victory seems farther away than ever.  Why is
that?

Friedman:  Why is it that the socialist government of the Soviet Union
was a disaster, and the GDR just as unsuccessful?

S:  We actually wanted to talk about the American drug-politik…

F:  …that carries all signs of a socialist program.  If a private
program falls apart, brings losses, then there’s lots of people losing
lots of money. Therefore they have a great interest in ending such a
program before it leads to ruin.  However a government, whose program
fails, must neither admit failure nor pay out of its own pocket.

S:  Is the anti-drug program, therefore, always going to escalate?

F:  The reaction to failed government programs is always the same:
People say it must be made only a little bit different, a little bit
bigger, a little bit more expensive.

S:  Since when have we seen this tendency?

F:  The War on Drugs was began with Richard Nixon in 1969.  That project
failed, but was put on the back burner for the next 17 years.  The War
on Drugs was started up again by Ronald Reagan.  He expanded it, especially
in Florida, but he couldn’t win, either.  Then came Mr. Bush, who declared
total war and appointed with much fanfare a drug czar named William Bennet.
S:  Who was in office for only 20 months.

F:  He stepped down after he told the whole world that the measures he
initiated had been a total success.  But that wasn’t the case.  Back in
1972 I predicted the failure of the Nixon Administration’s anti-drug
programs and recommended the legalization of all drugs.  I’ve not had
any indications that I should revise the judgements I’ve made at that
time.

S:  You share these opinions with former Secretary of State George Schultz
and columnist William F. Buckley.  They belong to a small group of
conservatives…

F:  …that group isn’t so small anymore; I’m not a conservative anyway,
never was one.  A conservative is someone who wants to leave things as
they are.  That’s not what I want.  I am a liberal, in the classic
European meaning of the word.

S:  Very well.  As a liberal, you recommend the legalization of drugs.

F:  I am against the prohibition as we have it and plead therefore, that
drugs be dealt with in just the same way alcohol and tobacco are.

S:  Which are legally for sale.

F:  With certain restrictions.  Alcohol can only be bought by persons of
a certain age, not during worship times and some places only from particular
government-run stores.

S:  Are these restrictions too broad for a free-market economist?

F:  It would be better to have the free market do the regulating. It can,
but it should not, be the role of the government to sell hard drugs, any
more than it should be to run a lottery or to promote gambling.

S:  Many states see a good source of income in that.

F:  That’s true unfortunately, but the state shouldn’t have any function
in a free market.  It should stick to a democratic and political direction.

S:  Implicit in the legalization of the drug market would be a change
in the corresponding laws.  Which of them do you expect to change first?

F:  The main problem is to clean out Congress, and then the leave the finer
regulations up to the states themselves.

S:  Who should produce the drugs?

F:  Those who can do it best — the pharmaceuticals industry.

S:  But they would only reluctantly produce products which cause addiction.

F:  What kind of nonsense are you telling me?  A big portion of the
pharmaceuticals on the market are addictive.  There are people who are
addicted to Aspirin, dependent on sleeping pills or won’t get by without
pain relievers.

S:  Where, in a legalized drug market, would the pharmaceuticals industry
obtain the necessary raw materials?

F:  That would be regulated by the free market.

S:  Can you imagine poppy fields in Kansas and Marijuana farms in
California?

F:  Why not?  Marijuana cultivation still goes on despite massive
eradication programs of the Marijuana Cops.  Marijuana plays a key roll in
the U.S. drug politik.  Although not a single case is known of a Marijauan
overdose leading to death, and dozens of scientific studies support
Marijuana as harmless, the War on Grass has been declared.

S:  Has the price of Marijuana gone up according to the laws of the
freemarket?

F:  Yes.  Compared with other drugs, Marijuana got to be considerably
more expensive, and cocaine and and then crack got to be cheaper.
The drug prohibition pushed the consumers from one harmless drug to
a very, very dangerous one.

S:  Would you make a legal distinction between, for example, cocaine
and marijuana in a free-market drug economy?

F:  I would treat they just the same as alcohol and cigareettes.  It’s
no crime to buy Schnaps, but it is to drive drunk.  It would be the same
with drugs.

S:  To use the alcohol market as an example:  Do you see “Light Heroin”
or a “Cocaine for Beginners” in special displays in your drugstores?

F:  Why not, we also have Light Beer and low-alcohol Wine.  For both of
those there’s a public market.  In this discussion, though, there’s one
thing you shouldn’t forget:  the real winner in a legalized drug market
is the consumer.  The legal drugs would be much cleaner, their active
ingredients indicated on the side of the package, the dangers of overdose
given also…

S:  …and the number of addicts will rise steeply, my friend.

F:  There’s not one single empirical study to support that argument.
The opposite is the case.  The cessation of alcohol prohibition led
to no increase of alcohol consumption in the long run.  Actually the
number of alcohol-related deaths fell, because the products were cleaner.
And since Marijuana was legalized in Holland, Marijuana abuse has gone
down, and similar data comes out of Alaska, where for one year now the
possession of Marijuana for personal use hasn’t been punished.

S:  Such arguments seem not to impress the drug warriors.

F:  Admittedly, other arguments are much stronger.  It’s safe to say
that the American inner cities are going down the drain as a result
of the current drug politik:  10,000 surplus deaths in the drug world
every year, the prisons are overflowing, and there’s little time left
for the sentencing of other crimes.  That’s happening apart from the
fact that the number of non-drug related crimes is rising.  Or it’s
It’s almost impossible to name a single positive result of the war
on drugs, and I haven’t even touched on the affects on Peru, Columbia,
and Panama…

S:  …where the Bush Administration has expanded its anti-drug war to.

F:  A completely unjustifiable undertaking.  We’ve destroyed these lands
with our own own soldiers, helicopters, and SWAT teams just because we
couldn’t enforce our own laws at home.

S:  The legalization of the American drug market would have considerable
economic consequences for countries like Columbia and Peru.

F:  Assuredly.  With our politik we’ve left these states to the production
of agricultural products like marijuana and coca, which go against their
long-term interests.  If we were to legalize the consumption of drugs
tomorrow, by tomorrow afternoon the price of Cocaine would drop like a
rock.

S:  And 10,000 people would lose their jobs.

F:  Be careful when you talk about unemployment.  What the farmers in Peru
get for their coca leaves they can’t distinguish from what they’d get under
a legalization.  I would rather have the farmers stay in business so they
can put the raw ingredients up for sale at some reasonable price like our
farmers.  The ones who will lose their jobs will be those who earn massive
profits from the drug trade — the members of the cartels, the smugglers
and the pushers.

S:  Also standing to earn is the state, which would tax legal drugslike it
does alcohol and cigarettes.

F:  Sure.  Though giving the state a new income source is not my intention
when I advocate legalization.

S:  Since the decade-long War on Drugs has brought no visible success, does
it follow that powerful people in and behind the political scene are gaining
money and influence by preventing its success?

F:  There exists every conceivable reason to believe that people who earn
money from the drug market will do everything they can to ensure their
source of income.  This is no example of a conspiracy theory, but the
forseeable relationships of members of a certain branch of industry.  That
pertains to the drug baron no differently than automobile tycoon.

S:  Wouldn’t legalization also bring dismay to the professional prosecutors?

F:  The prosecutor and the prosecuted have a common interest in the
drug war.  Prohibition assures a good livelihood to those who prohibit
the drugs and to those who deliver the drugs.  That also goes for the
prosecutors.  Their estates are being well-furnished, their incomesraised.
Fame and good careers are assured for them.

S:  Now that is starting to sound like a conspiracy theory.

F:  Not necessarily.  The [“pits”] of corruption are documentable and
growing.  You can be sure that when there’s a big pot of gold out there,
that there will be people who want to have it and who will put all other
interests aside to get it.

Discussing the dark side of copyright law.

Over the next couple of weeks I’ll be preparing a presentation for a middle school class here in Switzerland, where I will try to present the a rational response to the  “Piracy is Stealing” propaganda machine.  I’ve created an “Ask Slashdot” submission, to try and gather some good ideas/inspiration/references/facts and figures.  I didn’t write the blurb very well though.  Anyway, I’d appreciate any comments, tips, and citations anyone has.

G.

Remember the war on drugs?

So, let’s have a look at the NY Times headlines today.  Here are my favorites:

I always recommend reading the articles of course, but look at what we can get from just the headlines:  The financial crisis dominates, which isn’t suprising.   Our pres. wants to dump a lot of money into kickstarting the economy, which is probably not a bad idea.  On the other hand our fiscal deficit is getting absolutely terrifying.  So we need some creative ideas for cutting spending.  Well, as usual we find we are cutting funding for humanities studies.  No big surprises there.  One that did however catch my eye, and inspired this post, its the   fact that some states are apprently considering halting the death penalty in order to save money.

Well, I think cutting humanities education is a bad idea.  The american populace is already sorely lacking in critical-thinking skills and cultural. social, and historical awareness.  Good democracies require a thinking voting population, and vocational training doesn’t teach critical thinking.  But cutting the death penalty is pretty interesting, since it’s such a debateable practice.   That one caught me by surprise.

What would surprise and delight me however, would be for major policy makers to start talking about ending the war on drugs, and switching to a harm-reduction policy regarding drugs.  The only discussion I’ve seen in the major media here is the article “Latin Americans Decry U.S. Drug War”.  The headline certainly doesn’t say anything new to anyone who has been paying attention.

I have to do some research, and provide some good citations to back up the following claims, but that will have to wait for another post.  The evidence all pretty much points to the same conclusion though:  We can do a better job of preventing and treating drug-dependancies and drug-abuse by spending money on treatment and education, rather than dumping the money into a racist “war on drugs”, which vilifies and destroys other nations, subjegates huge chunks of our population, and creates criminals where there need be none.  Harmless drugs which offer positive social and medical benefits need to be decriminalized entirely, and marketed through legal and controlled channels

To start with, let’s decriminalize marijunna, and restrict its sale to people above the age of 18.  As people grow a little more enlightened we can extend this to magic mushrooms, and later perhaps even lsd, ecstasy, and ketamine.  If we, as a society, want to exercise a little more control over drug abuse, why not the following proposition:  In order to enjoy recreational drugs, you have to get a licence to purchase them, just like you need a licence to drive.  If you engage in antisocial behavior while one drugs (like a drunken and disorderly conduct, or driving while intoxicate for examples), you can have your license suspended.    When you purchase drugs you consumption can be tracked, and if your consumption exceeds certain limiits, you can be sent for evaluation and counseling.  A particularly innovative approach would be to make the legal status of a drug actually depend on the danger levels of the drugs (toxicity, danger of addiction, social harm), and its benefits (medical, psychotherapeutic, recreational and social).   Under such a system, tobacco and alcohol would be more tighly regulated than marijuanna.

Suddenly we’ll have a lot less people in jail, which will reduce our (huge) budget for the “correctional system”.  People who just want to smoke a joint, won’t be labelled criminals.  People will have more respect for the law, since there will be fewer useless, unfair, restrictive, pointless and patently harmful laws on the books.  We can tax the drug consumption, and increase government revenues.  Police budgets can be reduced, or rechannelled into useful activities:  i.e. fighting crimes that are actually harmful.  You know, things like rape, homicide, white collar crime…

On the positive side, at least some mainstream media are reporting on this issue, without the usual bias. On the other hand, Obama’s comments thus far regarding the drug war have not been promising.  Whether this is due to actual indoctrination on Obama’s part, or a sense of pragmatism is unclear, but I suspect it is more the latter.  The guy has a lot of things he has to change, and campaigning against the drug war can be a real political liability.  So let’s try to change that situation!

A summary of dongle manufacturers

I’ve picked 3 dongle manufacturers who have professional websites, and make a positive impression regarding support and quality.  All support Java Native Interfaces (JNI).

  • Aladdin Hardlock. They make a very competent and professional impression.  Website is a bit business oriented (as opposed to developer oriented).  They provide a lot of tools for tracking your product, which may or may not be useful.  Java, as well as Mac and Linux are supported.  Demo can be ordered here for free.  Rental, feature based, and sold software models are available.  To provide the licensing models we need, we will want the Hasp HL Pro setup.  I haven’t found  a pricelist on their website.  I have not determined whether or not drivers are required for their dongle.
  • Matrix software protection system:  These guys seem pretty professional, and they have German and Swiss offices, which could be valuable in the case of problems.  The usb dongle is driverless.  Linux, Windows and Mac are all supported.  These guys have two model series ML and MK, differing in paranoia level (MK only posseser of master key can reprogram the dongle). Price for a single USB dongle is 34 EUR, for 100 dongles price per dongle is 22 EUR.  You can order an evaluation kit for 40 euros here.  A lot of big name guys use them.  No mention of Java Native Interface (JNI), so I called their customer rep in CH, and asked about it, and yes there is one.  He tells me you will have to include a seperate dll with your java code to support the dongle calls.  I imagine this is the case with all options.
  • Microcomputer Applications Inc (Keylock).  These guys are awesome, because they provide you with a checklist for evaluating hardlock manufacturers, which you can download here.  I looked over it, and it’s very useful.  The evaluation kit is free and can be downloaded here.  Windows and Linux supported, no Mac.  Price is 21 USD per dongle, for orders of 10-24.  Unfortunately they require drivers and a dll (see this link).

64-bit Fedora 10 Post-installation setup

I manage 5 Fedora installations: my work and home PC’s, my laptop, my fiancee’s laptop,  and my buddy Charles’ PC, who is generously giving Linux a shot.  I told him he’d probably have an easier time with Ubuntu, but that I would have an easier time helping with Fedora, as that’s what I know.  Often I update these machines at widely different intervals, particular with Charles’ PC, since I don’t see him that often.

Fedora is great in many ways, and I stick with it because I’m pretty happy with it, philosophically and technically, but you often have to put a little work on it, particularly if you’re a 64-bit user and you to use a good graphics card.  Anyway, I thought it would be handy for me to have a checklist on the web, so I don’t forget anything the next time.  This is just a collection of solutions I’ve dug up somewhere else, but it might still be useful for others.

These are the things I have to do to get Fedora working acceptably:

  1. Fix the DNS lookup bug.  On all the machines I administer, this causes massive dns lookup failuers, with the effect that although you can ping an address, you don’t have any internet access (no web browser, no yum…).Add access to the fusion repository.Install various extra software.
  2. Access to fusion
  3. Add MP3 support/get Amarok working.
  4. Get Flash working (people need their youtube).
  5. Nvidia support.
  6. Make FAT partitions writeable by users, and add ntfs support.
  7. Disable physical file folders.
  8. Enable automounting of external drives (usb sticks for example).

1. Fix the DNS bug

Apparently there is a known bug, which mucks up the domain name lookup with certain ISP’s, of which bluewin (my ISP) is one.   In the bug description the complaint is that you get unreliable name lookups, but in the case of bluewin, you get no successful lookups.  A workaround is described here.  All you have to do is:

  1. Make sure that dnsmasq is installed.
  2. find out the network interfaces the machine has ( route -n )
  3. create a file called /etc/dhclient/< your network intervace name here >.conf consisting of the line
  4. ‘ prepend domain-name-servers 127.0.0.1; ‘
  5. Start dnsmasq (‘service dnsmasq start’).
  6. tell dnsmasq to start every time the computer does (‘chkconfig dnsmasq on’)
  7. restart the network connection (‘service NetworkManager restart’)
  8. Add ntfs write support.

2. Access to fusion:

Fusion is  a merge of the largest existing addon repos, and means to be the extra repo for fedora, including (separate) free and non-free packages that Fedora is not able to ship of license or export regulations (see comment by ingvar).

# rpm -Uvh http://download1.rpmfusion.org/free/fedora/rpmfusion-free-release-stable.noarch.rpm http://download1.rpmfusion.org/nonfree/fedora/rpmfusion-nonfree-release-stable.noarch.rpm

3. Add mp3 support

I use Amarok as my primary music application.  Fedora comes with Amarok 2, which I am still evaluating, but I found Amarok 1 vastly superior to the alternatives, so I’m hoping Amarok continues to be awesome.  I actually hate switching apps.  Unfortunately, just installing Amarok gives me no sound.  After running Amarok in a console and checking out the output, I tried:

# yum groupinstall phonon*

which did the trick.  I  Finally, to support mp3’s, you can do:

# yum groupinstall sound-and-video

4. Get Flash (i.e. Youtube) working

This solution  comes from here.   I quote verbatim:

  • rpm -e nspluginwrapper.i386 flash-plugin (if you have installed them)
  • cd /usr/lib64/mozilla/plugins/ (this is where your Firefox plugins are)
  • wget http://download.macromedia.com/pub/labs/flashplayer10/libflashplayer-10.0.d20.7.linux-x86_64.so.tar.gz (to download the Flash plugin)
  • tar -xvzf libflashplayer-10.0.d20.7.linux-x86_64.so.tar.gz (to extract the plugin)
  • restart firefox.

At this point you tube shows up fine.

5.  Enable your 3d hardware acceleration

In my case, I just run ‘yum install kmod-nvidia’ and restart X.  If you have a radeon card, I suppose the solution is the obvious one.

6.  Make the fat drive writeable, and add NTFS write support, so people can easily work with Windows.

For any fat partition, change the umask in fstab to 000.  For NTFS support, ‘yum install ntfs-config.noarch’.

7. Disable “physical” file folders.

This is the annoying behavior, default in gnome, that opens a new window for every folder that you open.  Get rid of it by double clicking on a folder, and in the resulting window open edit->preferences->Behavior, and check the box for  “Always open in browser windows”.  There is a scriptable way to do this, so if someone wants to tell me, please do.

8.  Allow automounting of usb drives etc.

I really hope this is an error, but it’s possible it’s a security precaution.  By default, if you plug in a usb stick or some such storage device, you won’t see it automatically on your desktop.  This is because automounting isn’t allowed by default.  You can change this by going to System->Preferences->Authorizations and click on hal->storage->Mount file systems from removable drives.  Click on the Edit box in the Implicit Authorizations sections, and change Anyone to yes.

9.  Scripts:

I have a script which installs a lot of the stuff I typically want but is not included in Fedora by default.  These include mplayer, par2, rar,  amarok(music listening), emacs, development tools, etc.  If you want it, the script is here.

The shit is hitting the fan.

Well, at this point things are getting as bad as I figured they would.  The Lehman brothers are going bankrupt, and Merryl Lynch is being sold to prevent the same from happening to them.  The USD is at 1.1 CHF.  About a year ago I warned my relatives they should put some money in other currencies, since I figured the USD would tank to about even with the CHF when the sub-prime crisis finally hit.  I don’t think anyone listened to me, but at least I tried.    I remember telling Herta I estimated it as about 50% probable that the USD would hit about even with USD sometime in the next two years, and I figured about a 5% chance that it would hit a real crisis, like 0.2 USD to the CHF.

Well, my 50% probably hit right in the middle of the time interval I gave (back in May).  It’s crawled back up to 1.1, but now with the latest wave in the crisis, I’m thinking it’ll go down again.  Selfishly speaking, I hope it tanks quickly over the next week, so my money is worth more when I travel to the States.  And of course, it makes my student loans cheaper.

But the Lehman brothers going under is pretty scary.  This summer I was working for an investment compan in Zug (one floor below the Mark Rich group).  The lead investor was telling us the investment infrastructure was provided by said Lehman brothers.  Already then there was quite a bit of discussion about their troubles in the financial mags.  Someone asked if the company was concerned about the Lehmann brothers troubles.  The lead investor made the comment that “well, if the Lehman brothers go under we have a lot bigger problems than just losing our infrastructure” -> referring to the overall infrastructure collapse that would be caused by such an event.  That will now happen.

On the comforting side, the government is at least stepping in to regulate the collapse, to try and mitigate the repercussions.  Let’s hope it works.   And lets hope we can get the Republicans away from the controls come November.

Overtrained again

Life has been very busy.

I picked up what may be the best training aid I have found to date:  “The Triathlete’s Training Bible” by Joe Friel.  It’s extremely well written and clear, and it touches on nearly all of the questions I have about training and recovery.  It’s so good I think anyone training seriously for anything, regardless of whether or not they have any interest in any of the triathlon disciplines, would benefit from reading it.  And of course it’s wonderful if you are training for any or all of the triathlon subsports.  It compiles a lot of information that is otherwise hard to find, or at least never synthesyzed elsewhere, to give the reader a better ability to coach him or herself.

A big issue in training is recovery time, and this is also true for fat-ass athletes like myself.  One point which is especially important for hobby athletes like myself is the problem of burning the candle at both ends.  I (and I don’t think I’m alone) have the tendency to think of my sports activities as fun and relaxind, something which I use to balance my work and intelectual stress.  Up to a certain point it works this way:  more sports means I’m able to work better and more effectively in an intelectual capacity.  It helps my mood, concentration and energy levels.  But too much stress, be it from work, personal responsibilities, trying to keep to my training plan, or even the purely physical stress of getting a bit rambunction on an exciting mountain bike ride, can tip you over towards that overtraining zone.  Go too far and the energy levels get low, recover time stretches out, and everything suffers.

On the other hand, you get your best performance if you regularly approach this overtraining level, without quite crossing the line.  Surfing the overtraining wave, but getting out before it crashes.  I’m not sure if Bettina and I are doing a good job of that, or a bad one.

Two weekends ago we did 1/4 of the Many-Hills show, a bike-marathon trail around Zurich.  We actually customize it a little, starting out at our home in Hirzel, biking down to Sihlbruck, following the traditional many-hills route over the Albis to the Uetliberg, and then taking the Uetliberg downhill into Zurich.  The last bit is total downhill candy, and primarily works out our finger muscles from all the riding the brakes.   We then take the train to Horgen, and ride over Horgen oberdorf back home to Erni.  This is maybe a little over 40km, and maybe something like 1200 m in climbing, but much of it is pretty steep, bringing our pulse rate about the 90% range.  So this compeletly kicked my but. Did a few easy workouts but I was still sore when  Sunday rolled around.

Sunday Bettina and I drove to Leukerbad, where we tried out the biking section of the Gemmi Triathlon.  I’m happy to report that our legs are up to the task.  Afterwards we hiked up in the mountains, camped out, had dinner, and hiked back down the following Sunday.

I’m always amazed out how a hike completely kicks our asses.  We both run, walk, bike and swim regularly, but strap on a backpack and hike 20-40 km with 1000-2000 m elevation, and man we suffer for days.  Today my legs finally feel somewhat normal, although my shoulders are still a bit sore.  But it was a beatiful hike, if a little stressy with the time constraints.   There was a good bit of scrambling and scary stuff, which was kinda fun.

I’m also happy to report that in the last year, while my weight has only dropped about 2km (from 92 kg to just under 90), my body fat percentage has dropped from 22% to just under 17%.    So probably by next year I’ll be back to my fighting form again.

Optimizing Happiness

I once had an ethics professor who explained Hedonism as being an ethical theory in which the goal was to be as happy as can be (at least I hope that he explained it that way, my mandatory ethics class was a LONG time ago). Contrary to popular opinion, hedonism doesn’t mean abandoning ethics or morality.   Rather it means allowing ethics to come to  result from, or at least harmonize with,  people’s inherent selfishness. For example, people like safety, so they impose laws which punish murder and violent assault. People who enjoy those things will refrain from them because the happiness they gained from the illegal activities would be less than the happiness they would lose from the punishment (e.g. prison). Note the prof didn’t propose this as a system for an ideal world, rather as a framework for thinking about how the world works.

Hedonism has a pretty bad rap in the United States. The word is mostly used pejoratively, which I find ironic. We are after, constitutionally guaranteed the right to pursue happiness (cough). Neo-cons, who are the most anti-hedonist of the lot, are typically social darwinists, and believe firmly in the inherent selfishness of man. They believe deeply that this inherent selfishness can lead to an ideal world. They use this to justify those aspects of a free market which serve their interests. But they think Hedonism is bad. They accomplish this by simply not thinking about it very deeply. Trying to have a good time is bad because the bible tells them so. Well in fact, the preacher tells them the bible tells them so. Even those that bother to read the bible seem to only understand it selectively.  The neo-cons seek to build a society where people are inherently selfish, but not allowed to be happy.  I think this creates a twisted, self righteous, harmful and fundamentally unhappy society.

But I digress.  If we  leave the word Hedonism out of it, I think that most of us agree that, under certain constraints, it’s a good thing to strive to be happy (we may not agree on the constraints, but let’s leave that aside for the moment). I think I can also say, without fear that I will stir a great deal of controversy, that many of us aren’t having a lot of luck being happy.

Now for some of us, this is caused by certain pathological and easy to identify problems. Maybe they are problems we aware of, or maybe everyone can see it but us, but the fact is our unhappiness is our own fault. I couldn’t hazard a guess as to how many people are like this, but I think everyone knows one or two. But a great many of us are unhappy and can’t readily identify a cause, or even a significant variable which we can control. Thus more and more people turn to pharmaceuticals.

One of the most difficult variables to control is stress-levels. In fact, for a great many of us, excess stress is clear and beyond the dominant variable in the equation that determines out moods. For most of us, it’s pretty much impossible to decouple the problem of minimizing stress from maximizing happiness. It may even be possible to frame them as equivalent problems.

The problem is that optimizing happiness is incredibly difficult. If you’re dealing with a person who has their shit reasonably together, and has eliminated all the obvious problems over which they have any control, you are left with many, many significant and interdependent factors. The weather, your family, your lover or lack thereof, your diet, exercise. So if you’re trying to determine if the johaniskraut or the omega-3 fatty acid supplements are making any difference, or if it’s just because the weather has been a bit nicer lately.

So the problem is, once you get to certain point, it’s just bloody difficult to optimize happiness. There are so many significant variables it would be incredibly tedious (and stressful!) to keep track of them all. Beyond that many of the significant factors are terribly difficult to quantify. Mood itself is terribly difficult to quantify. Finally of course, it’s pretty taboo to talk about maximizing our own happiness. Tell someone one of your interests is pursuing enlightenment, see if they laugh.

Nevertheless, I predict that there will be a resurgence in this field of human endeavor. As pervasive-computing becomes a reality, people will begin tracking their own biometric data, and tracking those factors they think will have an influence. Biofeedback therapies will advance. Someone will create an open access database to allow people to freely contribute their data, and we will begin to explore inwardly, using technological tools.

There will be resistance to this. It will be considered hedonism. The technology, data, and human energy involved will be directed towards sex and drugs. Some individuals will see this as a lapsing of morals. It will be an influence which brings society in a more empathic direction, which will threaten the violent, and those who are financially or politically empowered by violence. It will teach us that the pursuit of wealth, and our commercial culture have only limited benefits. So like the counter-culture movement in the 60’s, this movement will be attacked. The attacks will be the same as we always see: cultural (like the ridiculing of 60’s counter culture), legal oppression (e.g. most drug laws), and of course commercial co-option (e.g. the commercial counter-culture movement of the 90’s).

But I have faith because I must have faith. Let’s struggle on my hedonistic brothers! I do actually think, on scale of hundreds of years, things have been getting better. Our only problem now is that our rate of technological advance now dwarfs our rate of social advance. But that’s no reason to give up on technology. Just keep trying to apply it to something that actually matters. Kudos to the man who makes the first biometric happiness tracker! Keep it free please!